I know the season started. But I’m really busy, okay? And after seeing a few games, I think a lot of teams fall into a few categories. We already sort of know where teams will land, but the shortened season might make for some interesting changes. At the very least, a lot of teams already have an identity. 

The “Going to be worse than you think” Teams - Boston Celtics, LA Lakers, San Antonio Spurs, Golden State Warriors, Dallas Mavericks (but only a little)  

Sorry, Boston Celtics. But man, we look bad. All you really need to know about this year’s Celtics is that, on Christmas Day, Marquis Daniels took the game-winning three. Welcome to the season everybody! And until Paul Pierce gets back, we’re going to be pretty bad. 

My only saving grace is that my rivals will be in the same bad, injury-prone boat. The LA Lakers won’t be that good, because they have Kobe, Gasol, Bynum, and a rag-tag group of gutsy risk-takers. If this season were a Disney movie, the Lakers would be fine with just those three. And there would probably be a talking rat that teaches life lessons. But this is the NBA, and the Lakers aren’t as good as you think. 

The fundamentally sound and fundamentally boring San Antonio Spurs won’t be that good either. They’ll win a good amount of games, but injuries and general fatigue will start to plague these guys. The Spurs will also suffer from their ridiculous rodeo road trip, when the rodeo comes to town and the Spurs have to play a ton of road games. That’s America, folks… rodeos. 

The Golden State Warriors will be the coolest team that stinks. Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis, David Lee and Zach Galifanakis would be the perfect cast of The Hangover 3. But their team just won’t be that great, and not nearly as funny. Curry will make ridiculous shots but he’ll continue to defend NBA players about as well as I could. Monta Ellis will be sick, but he can’t take every game on his shoulders. And David Lee will have a great rebounding year, but that’s about it. It’s a bummer that the coolest team to hang out with will be pretty bad, but I can’t see these guys doing anything special. All these guys will be great on your Fantasy team, but unfortunately, not in real life. 

The Dallas Mavericks are going to be pretty good, but they’re not repeating this year. They’ll be good, just not as good as you think. They’ve got a little championship hangover, and they’re going to miss Tyson Chandler’s defense a lot. And doesn’t Shawn Marion have the biggest crazy potential out of anyone in the league? If you got to work and someone said, “Hey, did you see that guy choke out Mark Cuban last night?!” Wouldn’t you assume it was Marion? 

The “Going to be better than you think” Team - Memphis Grizzlies, Indiana Pacers

The Memphis Grizzlies and the Indiana Pacers have “gritty 4 seed” written all over them. They each have good rebounding and decent defense. And for the Grizzlies, once Rudy Gay starts being Rudy Gay again, they should be in pretty good shape. And they could, maybe, make an interesting run at the Western Conference Finals. For the Pacers, Danny Granger is going to be a stud all year. Unfortunately for them, the Pacers also have “We’re gonna get destroyed in the first round of the play-offs” written all over them. 

The Teams to beat - Oklahoma City Thunder, LA Clippers, New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls

These four teams could win the championship with a little providence. Gun to my head, the favorite here is the Oklahoma City Thunder, and not just because Kristen Chenoweth is a big fan. Durant will be gunning for the scoring title, and these guys are pissed that they blew the series against Dallas last year. They run fast, and they’re young, so this compressed schedule will help them a little when they play teams like the mummified remains of the Boston Celtics (see above). 

The next likely champs are the Los Angeles Clippers. Similar to the Thunder, they’re young and restless, and the addition of Chris Paul is absolutely huge. Everyone is psyched that they got Paul, and the fan base is jacked up that the Clips will be good this year. If any team is down near the end of the fourth quarter and they’re AT the Clippers, they’re going to lose. Oh, and Blake Griffin will be doing some crazy dunks. 

The Chicago Bulls and the New York Knicks are sort of toss-ups. Derrick Rose just might have another MVP season; meanwhile, Carmelo will also be gunning for the scoring title (even though I think Durant will get it). In all seriousness, it might come down to a few games between these two. If Carmelo, Amare, and Chandler spend all night at Libation and sleepwalk through a few games, then the wheels might come off. But the ball is in their court. 

The And 1 Mixtape Team - Miami Heat 

Sweet Moses Malone, these guys are good. I was watching the game on Christmas Day, and I didn’t even know that we came back from a Nike commercial. The Heat are SO GOOD, and if everyone stays healthy, it’s hard to see any other team winning the whole thing. They shoot well, rebound well, they play tough D… and if you think you’re coming back against them, Lebron will steal the ball and complete a triple-ally-oop for a dunk. Just to remind you that you’re not as good as them. They play like the varsity team is scrimmaging against the JV squad. 

The worst part is that they’ve been to the bottom with last year’s Finals, so this year they’re out for blood. If you don’t believe me, watch as the Heat score 150 on the Kings sometime this year. They are, by far, the scariest team on anyone’s schedule.